President Donald Trump was adamantan His tariffs will bring Factory jobs Back to American shores. Higher import taxes are likely to push manufacturers to move in the United States, in accordance with the American Bank, but the so-called solution can encourage companies to put more robots than on the assembly line.
Lack of qualified work and high costs remains large obstacles As companies come home, Bofa warns. Automation may be the key to unlock outcomePotential strengthening of the slowness of American producers productivity without meaning to increase employment.
The proof of slowing down in the sector is installed, according to the recent report From the American Institute of America. New orders for continued lasting goods fell in April, while the familiar production of the purchase manager index signaled the contraction from March.
Focusing on small businesses, Bofa’s bofa customer data show that the growth of deposits from the manufacturer also refused.
“That’s possible, right, that these (tariffs) could support the momentum moving forward and potentially reverse part of that slowdown, Especially for certain subsects in the industry, the author of the report, economist Bofa Taylor Bowlei, said, Happiness. “But the tariff costs and issues of work exist.”
Correction is everything rage In Corporate America, after the first trade war, Trump with China – and the saved-19 pandemic risks on global supply chains. Meanwhile, Baden-ER chips and reducing inflation, meanwhile, very subsidized Companies ready to make semiconductors and clean energy technology in the US
Although American production accounts for only 8% of the total number of employment, in the last 15 years, has created 2 million jobs, in the last 15 years record From economists of Bof. Half of these new positions was created in the last five years, they noticed, although the trend slowed down from the top in 2022. Years.
In a research Of the 56 analysts across the bank, which cover approximately 1,200 companies in the market, approximately 60%, the production will continue to prevail on the American – at least modestly – if tariffs remain high. Those who accompany industrial and production expect the greatest transition to the US
We are missing qualified workers
However, there are still obstacles to return back. In research, Bof 54% of analysts said that the issues of finding qualified workers were a significant barrier to companies.
Larger work costs are one of the main reasons manufacturers transferred from the United States in the first place, Bowlei said. While a 2024 Poll The Cato Institute found 80% of Americans believe that the country will benefit from the increase in production employment, only a quarter trust It would be better to work individually in a factory.
If firms are struggling to fill positions, Bowlei said, they are forced to understand how to improve productivity without hiring people.
“And this conversation in the automation and productivity enters this way,” she said.
Two-thirds of respondents in Bofa research said that any production transition to the United States demand significantly more automation than in the coast of the factory. This makes the best industries the best candidates for return to the United States, economists Bofa, such as auto mounting and top furniture. “Millions and Millions of Human Beings Swear Little, Small Bolts for Making Iphone,” as a Store Secretary Howard Lunnick propose? Not so much.
Meanwhile, Lunnik’s ability to continue to make Trade offers power the smallest thing to small businesses. They make up 98% of American production, toward NaNa Business Administration of the United States and relies on cheap imports a lot.
“Many of them depends on the specific part – for example, to complete its production process – which simply does not bring domestic,” Bowlei said.
Therefore, for smaller producers, tariff uncertainty enables capital expenditure planning especially difficult, even if their products become more competitive in the country. With profit margins and productivity, behind the US, the transient prices of consumers, is obvious the answer. However, if companies must absorb some customer retention costs, Bowlei said, reducing supplies, operations or other potential possibilities.
“Correcting in that aspect for smaller companies is a kind of sword with double edges,” she said.
However, sales are expected to grow in the coming months, Bowlei said. But companies could start making a grip, she added, when supplies start not abolished in the second half of the year.
