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Japanfamous for its pacifist The Constitution, now sets the sights on the global weapon export market.
Defense Minister Gen Nakatani Earlier this month, said Nikkei that he wanted to promote the Japanese defense, signaling a clear shift in the country’s abolition policy, which so far mostly focused on Japan’s catering for self-defensive forces, or JSDF.
Prime Minister Shiger Ishiba also signaled a sharper focus on the defensive sector and became the first sedid Prime Minister DSEY Japanthe largest exhibition of the country’s defense.
As the shift in paragraph comes at a time when Global Defense Consumption It is up to the rise, Japanese motivation is connected more to its security issues than to obtain from the increase in global demand for weapons, experts told CNBC.
The biggest reason for this shift is to deepen the interoperability of Japanese forces with allies and partners, said Rintaro Inoue, a research associate at the Geoeconomics Institute, Tokyo Tank Based on Tokyo.
By exporting weapons abroad The country is able to improve interoperability With purchasing parties, standardizing maintenance processes for hardware and creating common training opportunities.
“This reasoning was the main pillar after Prime Minister [Shinzo] Abe created the concept of the ‘proactive contribution of peace’ in 2013. years aimed at deepening cooperation with other Western countries in this area, especially in security fields, “he said.
When the late Abe was in office, he led efforts to revise an interpretation of Article 9 of the Japan Constitution to enable JSDF Yes more active to contribute to international peacekeepers and defends allies.
Japan also wants to develop his defensive industrial base, which was in “very poor conditions” before the country crossed its defense budget in 2022. years, Inoue said. Exports will allow him to achieve economies of scope required for reaching domestic production more Sustainable.
Instead of investing in the Japanese domestic defense base, the country has largely bought weapons from the US, such as F-35 Firher Adets and Radar SPI-7.
“It created a serious situation among the defensive industry based in Japan, and several companies left the industry, especially in the supply chain,” Inoue said. 2023. years, More than 100 companies have been reported to leave the defense industry in the last 20 years.
Naoko Aoki, a political scientist in American Politics Think Tanke Rand, said that Japanese defenses traditionally managed the limited domestic demand of the JSDF. Being able to export the subjects of defense means that companies will have a higher user base, helping them develop production capacities, lower costs and have greater flexibility.
“Even if the JSDF needs more, for example, these companies would not want to invest in new facilities, if they think it is a one-time demand, however, they can justify the investment” “Aoki said.
From 2024. year, Japanese weapons exports was 21 million TIV – only 0.1% of global weapons export – according to Stockholm International Mire Research Institute. The value of TIV or trend-indicators is a measure of the volume of international transfers of the main conventional weapon.
In comparison, neighboring South Korea was performed by 936 million of TIV in 2024 years, with 3.3% of the global weapons export, the largest exporter of Asian weapons from 2020. To 20. March amounted to 1.13 billion, accounting for 3.9% of global shipments.
The defense is attractive as a growth sector, claims that Investor Veteran David Roche, strategist on quantum strategy. “Demand will exceed the offer for a decade,” He said. Thus, the construction of a domestic capacity is of the utmost importance.
Roche said that if the Nations like Japan remain dependent on the US, Trump Administration is a more transactional approach that they will pay much more their own defense or defensive equipment that the US has delivered
Roche pointed to the US Minister of Defense of Pete Hegsett’s speech during 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, Earlier this month: “We ask – and really insist that our allies and partners do their part of the defense … NATO members are committed to conducting 5% of their GDP on defense, even Germany.”
“So, it doesn’t make sense that countries in Europe do this, while key allies in Asia spend less than defense in the face of even more terrible threat, without mentioning North Korea,” Hegseth added.
“If they believe in the United States to respect their engagement of contracts, then individual nations must provide their own security and spend a lot of money doing so,” Roche said.
Mitigating restrictions
Japan was 1967. adopted “Three principles on weapons exports“It is limited to weapons exports and later expanded those principles to virtually imposition the ban on the transfer of weapons exports, except for the transfer of US military technologies
The country relaxed this position under Abe, and former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida relieves the Ivika in 2023. years.
The Latest changes Allow defense equipment produced in Japan under the license of foreign defense firms, including finished products, to be exported to the Licensing and Hence to Third Earth.
For example, Japan agreed in late 2023. Years Production – under license – and exports of a patriot interception of patriot in the United States, whose stocks are impoverished after the delivery of these rockets in Ukraine.
Neighbor South Korea has seen that increasing global interest in its own Arms industry and seeks to become the main global weapon supplier. Will Japan be able to compete? Experts vary.
Roche says Japan has knowledge, skills and technology to be the main supplier of weapons, but Yog’s Inoue warns that Japan can face production issues due to his dropping population and growing proportions and growing proportions of the senior.
“I think Japan is very difficult to focused in the production of jobs,” he said.
Rand has pointed out more strict regulations. “Japan has a technical ability to do many things”, but as export regulations remain serious, will use exports mainly as a tool for strengthening their defensive industrial bases and defense relations with similar countries
