How the stock market made it back to a new record — even with so much still to worry about

Aggressive trade war, escalation of the Middle East and AI competition abroad – none of the 2025s of 2025. years succeeded in spoiling the epic return to the market from the earlier orders of the new record. Here’s why.

The S & P 500 is less than 0.1% remotely closed in a new record, almost almost 20% of the sale in April. Focused on technique NASDAK 100 is a step forward, a match on Tuesday all the time. The newest leg of the higher comes as investors are betting that the truce in the Middle East could prevent a great interference with the global oil supply.

“I’m surprised by a big bump,” Kevin Simpson said, portfolio manager in the planning of capital wealth. “When a factor in a geopolitical background – liquid conflict, I would not expect the S & P 500 to quickly to the new maximum. This liquidity is still in the system and how eager for investors are on the market that dominates Megacap Tech and AI.

All in all, the wall of concern has collapsed a little bit in the last four months. Perhaps the most important thing, President Donald Trump gave up on the narrated tariffs at key American partners, because countries continue to negotiate trade affairs during the summer. Earlier this month, USA reached a trade cunity with a cinema With Beijing that agrees to supply rare countries.

“We expect more trade offers to provide additional clarity and ultimately reduce the corporate, consumer and anxiety of investors”, Chris Haverland, a global strategic strategy in Wells Fargo Investment Institute., He said in Note. “Deregulation, tax cuts and a small short-term borrowing rate should further intensify the profit.”

Also, the salary of corporate corporations held well despite the uncertainty of politics. For the second quarter, the wage S & P 500 increased by 4.9%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of earning earnings in the year, in accordance with the facts.

Economy in good shape

Another reason for market resistance is the American economy, which remains on a firm foot. Unemployment rate remains low 4.2% Can be reported on payrolls showed only a little Softening in the labor market. Most Recent inflation data It also indicated that the tariffs have made a little affect prices.

Federal reserve expects to enter into twice this year twice this year, according to carefully watching “points”. The fed chair of Jerome Powell reiterated To expect policy makers to remain pending until better solutions on price tariffs.

“In our initial scenarios, we believe that American recession will be avoided,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the main strategic strategic strategic strategic strategy JPMorgan, said in the Note to clients. “Recent weakness in some indicators of labor market and limited transient transitional tariffs so far, so far, foster fosterity can be facilitated from our December forecast.”

And the story intact

Meanwhile, an artificial intelligence story that supported the market and more than two years remains unpaid. The last season of earnings has been restored confidence in investors – Nvidia continued to grow In a quick shot, while the consumption of large technology in AI did not slow down. Investors grew at the beginning of the year that Chinese Startep launched the question of whether billions of dollars were justified.

The “secular trend and remains robust, and recent adoptions and monetization should submit next leg of AI’s rally due to supporting background,” Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, head of CSO global shares in UBS, said in the Note to customers.

JpMorgan estimated that AI could drive 1 trillion of three billion consumption by 2030. years, including investments in generative AI computing, networking and storage of infrastructure.

However, the next few weeks could bring more instability to market. Investors are fixed by 8. July for reciprocal tariff suspension, while more rasim data are on deck next week to delay the health of labor market.

“Markets often have more volatility in building on conflicts, and then congregate or turn to other factors after it started,” Carol Schleif said, the main market strategy in BMO.